Major Updates on Scientific Progress Amidst a Global Pandemic

From March 13 through April 10, 2020, The Linus Group surveyed nearly 2,000 scientists, researchers, directors and other life science professionals to better understand how the industry is affected by the Coronavirus pandemic.

Our report explores how the life science community is reacting to this disruption, the estimated immediate and longer-term effects on scientific research, the perceived length and depth of the disruption, and the overall sentiment felt across the industry.

Several weeks in, the pandemic is still causing major disruptions to the work and personal lives of the community. In our research, a model emerged, showing the progression of productivity on scientific progress in five periods: Initial Shock, Golden Interim, The Rapids, Transition and Next Normal.

As productivity progresses through the sequential phases, the life science community needs to prepare for the Next Normal. But first, we must brace for the chaotic uncertainties during the Rapids and Transition Periods. Regardless of what future scenarios might emerge, those who can plan for these phases of the disruption will be better prepared to shape the Next Normal and be rewarded handsomely for these efforts.

ABOUT OUR STUDY

We heard from nearly 2,000 respondents across the globe over a month-long period, beginning March 13, 2020, shortly after the WHO declared the coronavirus a pandemic, and on the same day the US declared it a national emergency. Our research for this phase concluded on April 10. The study is segmented into four time stamps, each spanning one week, and each showing vast shifts in news and consequential sentiments.

ABOUT OUR RESPONDENTS

Over three-quarters (76%) of our respondents work in academic institutions and other specialized facilities such as private clinical testing facilities. Another 17% work in pharmaceutical, biotech/biopharma, medtech, contract research organizations, contract development and manufacturing organization or manufacturing companies of life science products and solutions. Of those respondents, 27% are in leadership or management roles at their respective companies.

About 78% of our respondents work in North America, another 18% from Europe and 4% replied from Asia/Pacific and the rest of the world.

PART I: REPORT RESULTS

Current sentiments of the pandemic

More than 2/3 of respondents ranked their health and the health of their family as the highest priority during this time — and this concern remained consistent across the month-long span of our study. Respondents reported their next biggest concern was the health of their students and staff, followed by their community’s well being, and lastly, ability to conduct scientific research.

For three weeks of our study, respondents' perspectives as professionals favored pessimism more than optimism. However, in the last week of our research, we found that optimism was on a slight rise, with 37% of respondents saying they felt optimistic, compared to only 26% feeling this way the week before.

When we asked respondents which mindset reflects their current state (disrupted, chaotic, stressed; acclimating, planning, pensive; or innovative, positive) in the fourth week, 61% of respondents said they were acclimating, planning and pensive and another 16% said they felt innovative and positive. Still, 21% of respondents felt that they felt disrupted, chaotic and stressed. Our industry respondents are those who are transitioning earliest into the innovative mindset.

Impact on continuity

After the first week of our study, we saw the proportion of people experiencing severe effects in their ability to continue work-as-usual jump from just 19% severely impacted in week one, to 56% who were severely impacted in week two. However, we started to see a decline in severity ratings for Week 4, as well as a corresponding increase in those experiencing slight or no impact.

Disruptions

For those conducting research, “disruption to experiments” has been the top concern since the second week. This corresponds to a jump in laboratory closures in the first two weeks of our study. Respondents shared concerns about supply chain, contract lengths, funding, and time-sensitive experiments as the reason for reporting high levels of “disruption to experiments”.

When asked about the length of disruption, across industry, job function, and seniority, most believe they will be impacted for longer than initially reported during the first week of the survey,, with 61% of respondents saying they think they will be impacted for 3-6 months, and another 20% of the total respondents claim that they will be impacted for 7-12 months, compared with 26% of respondents in management positions predict they will be impacted for 7-12 months.

Impact on productivity and scientific progress

As for productivity, the most major impact on productivity occurred between March 23-April 4, with 62% of respondents saying they were much less or not productive at all. However, in week four, we see productivity ratings begin to improve, although nearly 50% of our respondents still say that they are much less or not productive at all.

The Five Periods of Progression through a Global Pandemic

Using our data, we leveraged our insight generation techniques to develop a prospective model that illustrates the likely progression of productivity in the life sciences community as a result of disruptions caused by the novel coronavirus. We foresee five periods, each with its own set of characteristics, priorities and duration. Those phases are: Initial Shock, Golden Interim, Rapids, Transition, and New Normal.

Characteristics of Each Phase

Initial Shock

As suggested in our graph, life science professionals in the US have emerged from this phase to enter the Golden Interim . In this period the community focused on family, social distancing and worrying about how to stay healthy and simply get through each day. This phase was marked by abnormally high states of anxiety, disbelief and worry.

Golden Interim

This phase is expected to last 3-6 months. Though our respondents claim that they will be productive during this interim period, activities during this time will be different from business-as-usual times. During this unique and unprecedented period, the life science community is taking a more pensive and reflective inventory of their work by focusing on planning, writing manuscripts and experiments, submitting their publications and grant applications, analyzing data, and sharing data-sets with other scientists to forge new collaborations and new discoveries.

Rapids

Before our industry can enter the Transition Period, we expect to experience a short, but acute phase of chaos, uncertainty and pessimism due to the confusion of whether, when and how to re-enter the workforce, This phase will be marked by our ability to navigate obstacles and dangers — all while being forced forward into the Transition period as the economy and institutions re-open.

Transition

In this period, we anticipate a surge of activity as the life science community scrambles to re-enter work with their full capabilities. For those that focused on planning, retaining customer relationships and maintaining or protecting supply chains during the Golden Interim, we expect to see a significant jump in productivity as business ramps back up. Lagging organizations will be focused on relieving or attending to the backlog and stuck in outdated procedures and ways of working. The duration of this phase could range from one month to 18 months depending on the nimbleness and readiness of the organization.

Next Normal

Once the surge of activities from the Transition Period ends, this phase will likely be driven by market psychology caused by the rippling effects the coronavirus will have sent through our society as a whole. We anticipate that big winners and losers will emerge as a result of this overall disruption, the winners shaping the Next Normal.

Part II: Report Synthesis

Where We Are Now

As of April 20, 2020, we believe that the life science community is in the Golden Interim period of disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic. We’re seeing academic scientists, researchers and managers focus on writing, planning and trying to accomplish their goals through non-experimental ways , while industry is far less impeded in its progress.

How to Prepare for the Rapids and Transition Period 

As we enter the rapids and transition phase, we expect to experience an acute burst of chaos, uncertainty and pessimism - going to work will not be the same as before. One respondent said: 

"Much more concerned about the short term rather than worrying about the backlog, especially because this crisis may go on for months. Too many unknowns to really prepare."

To prepare for this Transition Period into the Next Normal, ask this about the mindset of your company: 

• Is your goal to survive?

• Is your goal to be prepared and strive toward the Transition?

•  Does your organization want to shape the Next Normal for our industry?

What’s critical to your organization widely varies. And, depending on your cash flow or where you are on the continuum, or how severely disrupted you are, surviving might be your best-case scenario.

If your organization’s goal is to dominate the Transition Period and strive toward it, it’s likely that you’re in a mode to get things ramped back up, to launch products and to think about how to change their protocols and research practices during this global pandemic.

Three Steps to Action Planning & Preparing for the Transition

In Summary

While we might be through the worst of the shock the life science community has been on a journey - with emotions ranging from very pessimistic to now more resigned and neutral. 

While the state of the coronavirus pandemic continues to shift daily, organizations that can prepare for the Rapids Period — the inevitably chaotic period as the economy starts to re-open—will be poised to successfully navigate the Transition Period. By knowing whether or not your organization needs to survive, plans to strive for the transition, or shape the Next Normal, you can leverage strategic tools such as scenario planning, and become prepared for embracing the Next Normal of the life sciences.

Want to learn more about understanding your critical uncertainties, how to scenario plan or want to help shape the Next Normal? Let’s talk. Reach out to us at hello@thelinusgroup.com.